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There is a vast body of research that has focused on the determinants of qualification attainment and staying on in post-compulsory education. Generally, those with a higher measure of innate ability are more likely to undertake additional qualifications or remain in full-time education than those with lower levels of measured ability. However, little research has specifically focused on the determinants of the type of qualification attained or questioned why a specific path of qualification attainment has been adopted in the first place. This paper illustrates the fact that innate ability does not determine the path of qualification attainment, especially at low levels of qualification. It is actually the case that combinations of regional, other personal and family characteristics are influential in the adoption of the academic or vocational route.

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Although there are estimates of the incidence of educational participation and the economic rewards achieved by those in possession of formally recognised qualifications, either in terms of labour market outcomes or earnings, little is known about the personal or family characteristics associated with those engaged in learning later in life. There is no formal definition of what exactly late learning refers to, insufficient quantitative information relating to the incidence of adult learning, the associated costs and benefits or even whether the type of qualification or the method by which the qualification is undertaken is important. This article makes a provisional effort to answer some of these questions. The conclusions are not intended to be definitive, but should be seen as a basis for other possible research work.

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Although there are some estimates of the incidence of late learning and the economic rewards achieved by those in possession of formally recognised qualifications, little is known about the personal or family characteristics associated with those engaged in late learning, the associated costs and benefits, or even whether the type of qualification or the method by which the qualification is undertaken is important. This paper illustrates that approximately one in three of the hours of education and training received by working-age individuals in the United Kingdom are attributable to late learners. The implication of these findings is that even though there is no earnings payoff from undertaking late learning, there may be benefits in the form of improved labour market outcomes and that lifelong learning appears crucial in counteracting the obsolescence of existing education and training. The paper also illustrates that 'learning leads to learning'.

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With 496,000 international students studying for qualifications at higher education [HE] institutions across the United Kingdom - equivalent to 20 per cent of all HE students - international students contribute significantly to our economic and social prosperity, both in the short term during their studies as well as in the medium to longer term after they graduate. Given the continuing importance of international students as a source of export revenues, London Economics were commissioned by the Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) and Universities UK International (UUKi) to re-estimate the benefits and costs to the United Kingdom economy associated with international students, focusing on the 2018/19 academic year. Following a previous study estimating these impacts for 2015/16 (on behalf of HEPI and Kaplan International Pathways), the analysis updates the previous results by focusing on the cohort of international students who started higher education qualifications in the UK in 2018/19.

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Sub-degree qualifications constitute an important element of the UK higher education [HE] offering. With the majority of students undertaking these qualifications engaged in STEM subjects, higher education qualifications at Levels 4/5 already contribute to the UK's technical skills base. However, since the increase in higher education tuition fees in England in 2012/13, there has been a significant decline in the number of students undertaking sub-degree qualifications. To explore potential reasons for and measures to address this decline, we undertook an econometric analysis of the returns associated with higher education qualifications at Levels 4 and 5 (relative to possession of Level 3 qualifications), and compared these to the corresponding returns associated with undergraduate degrees (Level 6). The qualifications examined were Higher National Certificates (HNCs)/Higher National Diplomas (HNDs) (Level 4/5), Foundation Degrees (Level 5), Certificates of Higher Education (HE Certificates) (Level 4), and Diplomas of Higher Education (HE Diplomas) (Level 5). The analysis focused on English-domiciled students who started prescribed degree or sub-degree qualifications at [higher education institutions] HEIs or [further education colleges] FECs in England in 2016/17, and was undertaken separately for both STEM-based and non-STEM-based subjects for men and women separately.

The returns to HE qualification attainment are captured in terms of: (1) the net additional lifetime benefits to the individual (through enhanced earnings and employment, net of tax and tuition fee costs - the net graduate premium); and (2) the net public purse benefit (through enhanced tax revenues, net of student support and other costs of teaching provision). In addition to these benefits in monetary terms, to facilitate comparison across the different qualifications, the analysis estimates the internal rate of return (IRR) associated with each qualification. The IRR provides a measure of the profitability or yield of an investment, and takes into account the relative size and timing of the economic benefits as compared to the initial costs incurred, thus facilitating comparisons across the different qualification levels considered. The analysis indicates that although there are strong positive returns to some higher technical education, there is some degree of variation across qualifications, genders, study mode and subjects. In particular, while the returns to some specific qualifications, particularly in STEM-based subjects, are substantial and often larger than the respective returns to undergraduate degrees, in other instances, Level 4/5 qualifications lag behind the returns accrued by degree-level students. The report proposes three potential approaches to tackling the recent decline in enrolments at sub-degree level.

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Following the Augar Review of post-18 education [available in VOCEDplus at TD/TNC 136.666], the Department for Education put forward a set of proposals to reduce the costs of higher education fees and funding in England. Under the Department's response to Augar, the reduction in the repayment threshold (and slower uprating) and the extension of the repayment period increases the costs borne by low and middle-income graduates. At the same time, the elimination of real interest rates guillotines the repayments made by the highest earners as they are able to pay off their loans more quickly, so that high-earning graduates benefit significantly from these proposals. The changes under the Augar response system are thus deeply regressive.

Building on previous work for the University of the Arts London from December 2022 [available in VOCEDplus at TD/TNC 153.965], London Economics modelled a number of additional alternatives ahead of the next General Election that are either fiscally neutral to the Augar response or generate additional cost savings to the Exchequer, but are also more progressive. By retaining real interest rates, these options include the re-introduction of maintenance grants (on top of maintenance loans) as well as stepped repayment rates.

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London Economics were commissioned by the Department for Education to analyse the returns to A levels. The core results indicated that compared to [General Certificate of Secondary Education] GCSEs/O levels, there are strong positive wage returns to A levels - irrespective of whether the individual goes on to complete further or higher qualifications. The wage returns are greater when a [science, technology, engineering and mathematics] STEM A level is undertaken compared to A levels in other subjects; however, for those individuals with A levels as their highest qualification, there is no appreciable increase in earnings as further STEM specialisation occurs. In other words, for these individuals, some degree of subject breadth at A level is associated with the greatest returns. In contrast, individuals who go on to attain further or higher qualifications see the greatest return associated with prior specialisation in STEM subjects. Compared to GCSEs/O levels, for men whose highest qualification consists of a STEM A level at grade A-C, this premium amounts to approximately £7,000 per annum between the ages of 29 and 42 (in 2014 prices). The corresponding estimate for women stands at £4,500 per annum. The earnings returns achieved by women are consistently greater than for men. For men, the grade of A level is important. For women, the grade of A level is less important than the choice of subject in determining earnings. Maths test scores at the age of 10 have a significant earnings impact later in life, over and above the qualifications that individuals go on to attain. In general, the labour market impact of A levels is predominantly demonstrated through earnings rather than employment. Employment effects are generally small or not statistically significant.

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London Economics were commissioned by the University of the Arts London (UAL) to analyse a number of options for reforming the English higher education (HE) funding system, as potential alternatives to the proposed changes that were announced by the Department for Education (DfE) in response to the Augar Review [available in VOCEDplus at TD/TNC 136.666]. To improve the fiscal sustainability of the English HE funding system, the DfE's long-awaited Augar response [available in VOCEDplus at TD/TNC 153.967] introduced a number of significant changes to the student loan repayment system to be applied to students starting HE qualifications from 2023-24 onwards.

While these changes are expected to lead to significant savings for the Exchequer, they are regressive. In particular, the proposed changes will result in lower lifetime loan repayments for the highest earning graduates only, alongside higher repayments for most other graduates (i.e. low- and middle-income graduates). Therefore, we were asked by UAL to model the impact on the Exchequer and students/graduates of a number of alternative approaches that would achieve similar Exchequer cost savings (i.e. be fiscally neutral) while removing the regressive features of the DfE's response to the Augar Review. Show less

This paper examines which incremental increases in numeracy skills, literacy skills and skills and readiness in using information and communication technology (ICT) for problem solving have the biggest impact on employment participation and related labour market outcomes, and how these compare to incremental increases in educational attainment. The source of the data is the 2012 Survey of Adult Skills, a product of the OECD Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC). Using the 2012 PIAAC data, the authors' analysis confirms that there are significantly higher earnings and employment returns to both increasing levels of formally recognised education, and to increasing levels of numeracy, literacy and ICT skills proficiencies controlling for the level of education.

Unsurprisingly, the labour market returns to changes in formally recognised levels of education in general exceed the labour market returns associated with increasing levels of skills proficiency. In the case of literacy and numeracy proficiencies, improved literacy and numeracy skills narrow the labour market outcomes gap between individuals with different levels of formally recognised education, but do not close it completely. The analysis demonstrates more substantial returns to ICT skills. Furthermore, possession of higher levels of ICT skills and lower levels of formally recognised qualification are often associated with higher returns compared to individuals with higher levels of formally recognised education but lower ICT proficiency levels. In other words, ICT skills proficiencies often entirely compensate for lower formally recognised qualifications in the labour market.

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London Economics were commissioned by Pearson to undertake an analysis of the educational and economic outcomes associated with [Business and Technology Education Council] BTEC vocational qualifications. The analysis used information from the United Kingdom Labour Force Survey between 1996 and 2009 to assess qualification progression rates and subsequent education attainment associated with BTEC qualifications specifically and other vocational qualifications more generally. This analysis estimated the marginal returns to intermediate and low level vocational qualifications, where the marginal returns estimate the earnings enhancement achieved when the particular qualification of interest is the individual's highest qualification. It also estimated employment outcomes associated with vocational qualification attainment at both an aggregated level and disaggregated by type of vocational qualification and gender. In addition to this, through the combination of information on the costs and benefits generated by the individuals and the Exchequer associated with qualification attainment, the analysis also estimated the net lifetime individual and Exchequer benefit associated with qualification attainment and the rates of return associated with acquisition of intermediate and low level vocational qualifications.

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